In early April 2025, Moderna’s stock plunged nearly 17% after the company slashed its 2025 revenue forecast by approximately $1 billion. This sharp decline reflected increased selling pressure, with momentum indicators like RSI reaching oversold levels, suggesting a short-term bounce, albeit amid continued caution.
Cost‑Cutting in Response to Weaker Demand
With declining demand for COVID‑19 vaccines and sluggish uptake of its RSV treatment, Moderna plans to trim $1.5 billion in expenses over two years. While this may shore up finances, it raises concerns about potential underinvestment in next‑generation therapies.
Key Technical Levels: Watchpoints for Investors
Analysts identify a $30 support level, a former swing high in April 2019, as critical. If breached, the next major support lies near $13, close to December 2018 and August 2019 lows. Conversely, resistance sits around $57, with a potential rally to $68 if broken.
Regulatory Headwinds & Strategic Realignment
HHS Cancels H5N1 Bird‑Flu Contract
In May 2024, HHS terminated a $700 million flu vaccine contract, a move reflecting skepticism toward mRNA technologies ushered in under RFK Jr.’s leadership. Despite the setback, Moderna’s Phase 1/2 data showed strong immune responses (~97.8%), underscoring the underlying scientific promise.
R&D Diversification Amid Uncertainty
Following regulatory pushback, Moderna has cut Q1 2024 R&D expenditures by 19%, pivoting toward global partnerships, private sector collaborations, and public health initiatives like CEPI. This strategy aims to reduce reliance on U.S. federal support and stabilize its diverse pipeline .
Pipeline Pipeline: Beyond COVID
Oncology, Autoimmune & Gene Therapy
Moderna is expanding its mRNA platform beyond infectious diseases, targeting oncology, autoimmune disorders, and gene therapy, positioning itself as a key player in 21st‑century medicine.
Combo Flu/COVID Vaccine Delays
The FDA demanded additional Phase 3 efficacy data for the mRNA‑1083 combo vaccine, causing Moderna to withdraw and refile its BLA, delaying the product’s launch until 2026. In response, Moderna is refocusing on adults aged 50+, where immune responses are strongest .
AI & Manufacturing Edge
Moderna is leveraging AI (e.g., NVIDIA’s BioHive‑2 supercomputer) and new mRNA production methods to enhance discovery and scale up manufacturing . These investments reflect its ambition to lead in both research and facility optimization.
Moderna today occupies a pivotal crossroad, battered by earnings cuts and regulatory scrutiny, yet armed with a cash-filled war chest, a diversified pipeline, and tech-enabled innovation. For investors, the coming 6–12 months could prove decisive: catalysts like PDUFA decisions, Phase 3 combo‑vaccine data, and strategic partnerships may unlock upside, but ongoing headwinds warrant cautious hedging. It’s an opportune moment for those with conviction in mRNA’s long-term trajectory, but only if risk management is equally robust.
